Understanding the market
The figure everyone quotes is also the one that misleads the most sellers.
The two sets of figures
QPAREB, Montreal CMA, August 2026. On one side, a slowing market: sales down 13%, listings up 18%, condominium selling time up 12 days.
On the other, median prices rising: +3% for single-family homes, +4% for condominiums, +2% for plexes.
It looks like a contradiction. It is not.
What a median price actually measures
The median price is the price of the sale sitting in the middle of closed sales. It describes what sold, not what a given property is worth.
If transactions slow mostly in entry-level segments, because those buyers are the most sensitive to rates and down payments, the median rises mechanically. Not because properties are worth more, but because the mix of sales has changed.
The lag in time
A sale closing in August was negotiated in June or July, and the listing often went up in the spring. August's median price therefore describes the market of two to three months ago.
Days on market and listing counts describe today. That is why they turn before prices do: they are leading indicators, while the median price is a lagging one.
The mistake it causes in sellers
"Prices rose 4%, so I can ask 4% more than my neighbour got last year." That is the most expensive reasoning of the autumn.
The +4% does not apply to your property. It applies to a basket of sales that is not yours. Meanwhile what your buyer sees is the twenty-eight percent more listings on the South Shore.
The indicators to watch, in order
- Comparable closed sales from the past three months, in your sector and segment. The only measure of what someone actually paid.
- The number of active listings competing with you right now.
- Days on market in your segment, which tells you how fast the market decides.
- The regional median price, last, as background.
Reversing that order means pricing off the most general and most delayed of the four.
What these figures do not say
A regional statistic describes a market, not a property. Two houses on the same street, at the same price, can meet opposite fates depending on their condition, their preparation and the competition active at the exact moment of listing.
That is why we never set a price from an average. We start from comparable closed sales over the past three months, look at what is competing today, and adjust for real differences. The statistic is background, not method.
Three habits in the current market
- Price to be found, not to keep room. Buyers search by bracket, and built-in room drops you out of their search.
- Set a revision date in advance. Deciding at week five, before listing, avoids deciding emotionally at week twelve.
- Prepare the file before the showings. Documents, certificate of location, invoices for work done. What answers fast converts better.
Related
Frequently asked
How can prices rise while sales fall?
The median price reflects the mix of closed sales. If entry-level segments slow more, the median rises without properties being worth more.
Does the median price apply to my property?
No. It is a market statistic, not an appraisal. Only comparables sold in your sector and segment are.
Which indicator should I look at first?
Comparable closed sales from the past three months, then active inventory, then days on market, and the median price last.
Sources: Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB) releases of 4 September 2026 covering the Montreal CMA and the Quebec City CMA, August 2026 data. The price-revision and overbidding statistics come from the Quebec City CMA release; the Montreal CMA release does not publish those measures for the same month. Figures consulted 13 September 2026.
Published by the Loaa & Manseur team, number one team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025. Tell us about your project.