Buying · Saint-Jérôme · 2027 forecast
Saint-Jérôme real estate 2027: what CMHC forecasts for prices, sales and rents in its region, and what Centris sales in Saint-Jérôme already show in 2026.
CMHC does not publish a forecast for Saint-Jérôme, a North Shore city: it counts it in the Montreal metropolitan area (Island of Montreal, Laval, North Shore, South Shore and Vaudreuil-Soulanges), for which it forecasts for 2027 an average resale price of $685,000 (+1.4%), 46,500 sales (+2.4%), a rental vacancy rate of 4.5% (2.9% in 2025) and an average rent of $1,455 for a 2-bedroom unit. In Saint-Jérôme, the median single-family house sold for $540,000 in the third quarter of 2026 (Centris), with an average change of +7.1% versus 2025 over the first three quarters. If Saint-Jérôme followed its region's forecast, the median house would be around $548,000 in 2027: a calculation, not a local forecast. Source: CMHC, Housing Market Outlook summer 2026 update (July 22, 2026, information available as of June 23, 2026), reference scenario; Centris (Matrix), compiled October 28, 2026. Compiled by the Loaa & Manseur team on November 5, 2026.
The short answer
CMHC does not publish a forecast for Saint-Jérôme, a North Shore city: it counts it in the Montreal metropolitan area (Island of Montreal, Laval, North Shore, South Shore and Vaudreuil-Soulanges), for which it forecasts for 2027 an average resale price of $685,000 (+1.4%), 46,500 sales (+2.4%), a rental vacancy rate of 4.5% (2.9% in 2025) and an average rent of $1,455 for a 2-bedroom unit. In Saint-Jérôme, the median single-family house sold for $540,000 in the third quarter of 2026 (Centris), with an average change of +7.1% versus 2025 over the first three quarters. If Saint-Jérôme followed its region's forecast, the median house would be around $548,000 in 2027: a calculation, not a local forecast.
What CMHC forecasts for the Montreal metropolitan area
| Montreal CMA | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (forecast) | 2027 (forecast) | 2028 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average resale price | $610,211 | $651,873 | $675,400 | $685,000 | $692,000 |
| Sales | 43,639 | 46,999 | 45,400 | 46,500 | 47,400 |
| Housing starts | 17,570 | 27,777 | 24,600 | 22,000 | 20,500 |
| Rental vacancy rate | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% |
| Average rent, 2-bedroom unit | $1,176 | $1,346 | $1,405 | $1,455 | $1,500 |
CMHC, Housing Market Outlook summer 2026 update (July 22, 2026, information available as of June 23, 2026), reference scenario. 2024 and 2025: actual figures.
What sales in Saint-Jérôme already show in 2026
| Single-family house in Saint-Jérôme | 2025 median | 2026 median | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | $512,000 | $540,500 | +5.6% |
| 2nd quarter | $500,500 | $547,000 | +9.3% |
| 3rd quarter | $508,000 | $540,000 | +6.3% |
- House sales in Saint-Jérôme from January to September 2026: 543, which is -7.8% versus 2025; all property types combined, -11.2%.
- Median house selling time in the third quarter of 2026: 21 days (+4 days versus 2025).
- Condo: median of $319,250 in the third quarter of 2026; with the change forecast for the region, about $324,000 in 2027 (calculation).
- The 2026 house trend in Saint-Jérôme (+7.1%) is above the 2026 change forecast for the region (+3.6%).
- Housing starts in the region: 22,000 forecast for 2027 (-10.6%), after 27,777 in 2025.
- In Canada, CMHC forecasts an average price of $698,900 in 2027 (+3.5%) and an average 5-year fixed mortgage rate of 5.4%.
What it changes for buying in Saint-Jérôme in 2027
CMHC forecasts a modest rise in the average price in the Montreal metropolitan area in 2027 (+1.4%), but a rebound in sales (+2.4%): more buyers in the market next year. Now is the time to buy while there is choice and sellers are negotiating. In Saint-Jérôme, the house selling time grew by 4 days in the third quarter of 2026: negotiating room to use now. On the rent side, the 2-bedroom unit keeps rising ($1,455 forecast for 2027): every year of rent is a year without equity.
How to read these numbers
Forecast source: CMHC, Housing Market Outlook summer 2026 update (July 22, 2026, information available as of June 23, 2026), reference scenario. The forecasts cover the average price of all resales in the region, not the median house of one city; the 2027 scenario in Saint-Jérôme simply applies the region's forecast change to the third-quarter 2026 median. CMHC also publishes an alternative scenario: average price of $669,100 in 2027 for the region (-0.8%). The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate from 2.25% to 2.5% on October 28, 2026, after these forecasts were prepared: a possible brake on prices. Local figures are Centris (Matrix) medians from January to September, compiled October 28, 2026; a quarter with few sales can swing sharply.
Frequently asked questions
Will prices drop in Saint-Jérôme in 2027?
CMHC does not forecast a decline for the Montreal metropolitan area: +1.4% on the average price in 2027 in its reference scenario. In Saint-Jérôme, the median house changed by +7.1% on average in 2026. A local decline remains possible if inventory rises, but it is not CMHC's scenario.
Will rents drop in 2027?
No. CMHC forecasts the vacancy rate to rise to 4.5% in 2027 in the Montreal metropolitan area, but the average 2-bedroom rent to keep rising, from $1,405 in 2026 to $1,455 in 2027 (+3.6%). More vacant units, so more choice, but no rent decline forecast.
Is now the time to buy in Saint-Jérôme?
For the Montreal metropolitan area, CMHC forecasts for 2027 an average price up 1.4%, sales up 2.4% and rents up 3.6%. In Saint-Jérôme, the median house sold for $540,000 in the third quarter of 2026, in 21 days. Waiting for 2027 does not promise a better price in this scenario; the right time depends mostly on your budget and pre-approval, which a team broker can check with you. See also the market in Saint-Jérôme by quarter and the rate hike in Saint-Jérôme.
Sources: CMHC, Housing Market Outlook summer 2026 update (July 22, 2026, information available as of June 23, 2026), reference scenario; Centris (Matrix), Statistics module, median sale price and number of sales of single-family houses and condos for the municipality of Saint-Jérôme, January to September 2025 and 2026, compiled October 28, 2026; Statistics Canada, 2021 census, for Saint-Jérôme's inclusion in the Montreal metropolitan area; compiled by the Loaa & Manseur team, aggregates only. The hub CMHC 2027 forecasts in 36 cities compares the 36 cities.
Our proof, not our promises
The Loaa & Manseur team, led by Lotfi Manseur and Loaa Al Daow, is the number 1 team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025, 6th RE/MAX team in Quebec, 15th in Canada and in the global top 50 of large residential teams according to the official RE/MAX ranking, computed on actual transactions. Its Google profile counts more than 220 reviews with a 4.9 rating. Its offices are at 55 avenue de l'Équinoxe in Brossard, one bridge from the island, and every broker's licence can be checked in the OACIQ public register. Three things to verify yourself before calling us, and to demand of any other broker.
Also available in French: version française de ce guide.
Published September 7, 2026 by the Loaa & Manseur team, the number 1 team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025, 6th RE/MAX team in Quebec, 15th in Canada and in the global top 50 according to the official RE/MAX ranking. Tell us about your project.