Housing affordability in Quebec in 2027: Montreal at its worst since 1990, what can change and what will not

Forecast · 2027 · Affordability · RBC, Desjardins, APCHQ · Sources read September 6, 2026

Canada is getting slightly more affordable, Quebec is not. Here is why, what you need to earn for the median home, and the three things that can actually move in 2027.

Housing affordability in Quebec will not improve much in 2027: RBC's Montreal measure, the share of median income needed to carry a home, reached 50.4 % at the end of 2025, up 1.1 point in a year, then its worst level since 1990 in the first quarter of 2026 according to RBC data cited by Le Devoir; Quebec City is at its worst in more than 30 years after price gains above 10 % in 2025. Canada improves (52.4 % at the end of 2025, versus 63 % at the end of 2023) thanks to declines in Toronto and Vancouver; Quebec does not. Desjardins describes affordability as "under very strong pressure" and expects prices to stabilize in 2027; the APCHQ puts the need at 100,000 units a year against 63,500 forecast. For a $505,000 home, Quebec's median in July 2026, you need about $100,000 of household income with 20 % down and close to $120,000 with 5 %.

The affordability measures, dated

Source: RBC Economics, March 31, 2026 report by Robert Hogue, and the first-quarter 2026 update. Reading: the higher the measure, the less affordable. The Canadian paradox fits in one sentence: affordability improves where prices fall (Toronto, Vancouver) and worsens where they rise (Montreal, Quebec City, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg). RBC expects gains to "weaken and become rarer," with the Bank of Canada's pause in 2026 limiting progress to price corrections in some markets and household income growth.

What you need to earn for Quebec's median home

In July 2026 Quebec's median single-family home sold for $505,000 (QPAREB). With a 5-year fixed rate at 4.24 %, a 25-year amortization, about $350 a month in taxes and $150 in heating, and the 32 % gross-income rule:

These are our calculations, to redo with your file in the mortgage calculator; lenders also apply the stress test at the rate plus 2 points. Quebec's median household income is far from $120,000: that is why first purchases increasingly happen in condos ($396,504 median in July 2026), in the outer suburbs or on two incomes. Our first-time buyer programs guide details the tools.

What can improve in 2027

• Prices stabilize: Desjardins expects existing-home prices to stabilize in 2027 (except in Quebec City), CREA forecasts only +1.1 % in Canada. A year of flat prices with wages up 3 % improves the measure by about one point.
• Incomes rise: it is the only structural lever RBC retains for 2026-2027, along with price corrections elsewhere in the country.
• Tax tools cap higher: FHSA ($40,000 lifetime, $8,000 a year), HBP at $60,000, 30-year amortization for first-time buyers and new builds, CMHC insurance up to $1.5 million. See buying as a newcomer to Quebec for the programs.

What will not change in 2027

• Rates are not coming down: the dominant scenario is a first policy rate hike in the first half of 2027 (2.75 % by end of 2027 per Desjardins). See the Bank of Canada rate in 2027.
• Supply stays short: 63,500 housing starts forecast by the APCHQ against 100,000 needed; 8,855 new houses for the whole province. Details in housing starts 2027.
• Quebec City stays tight: demand remains very strong per Desjardins, inventory historically low per RBC; the measure is at a 30-year worst, but started far lower than Montreal's (35.9 % versus 50.4 %).

Frequently asked questions

Will housing be more affordable in Quebec in 2027?

Slightly at best: stable prices (Desjardins) and rising wages improve the measure by a point or two, but rates are no longer falling and supply stays at 63 % of the need. Montreal starts from its worst level since 1990.

What income do you need to buy a home in Quebec in 2027?

For the $505,000 median home: about $100,000 of household income with 20 % down, close to $120,000 with 5 %, at 4.24 % over 25 years (our calculations, 32 % rule). A median condo at $396,504 needs about $80,000 with 20 % down.

Why is affordability improving in Canada but not in Quebec?

Because the national measure is driven by Toronto and Vancouver, where prices are falling, while Montreal and Quebec City are rising (+5.2 % in Quebec year over year in July 2026 per CREA). Affordability follows prices, not geography.

Sources

• Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast, July 15, 2026, and the January 2026 update.
• CMHC, Housing Market Outlook, January 15, 2026, and the summer update reported on July 22, 2026.
• APCHQ, 2026-2027 forecasts for Quebec's construction and housing sector, February 11, 2026.
• Desjardins Economic Studies: Bank of Canada decision of September 2, 2026 (Randall Bartlett) and economic forecasts of August 20, 2026.
• RBC Economics, Housing affordability, March 31, 2026 (Robert Hogue).
• QPAREB (APCIQ), July and August 2026 statistics and Q2 2026 review (Charles Brant).
• Royal LePage, 2026 forecast (December 2025); nesto market reviews of February 9 and August 19, 2026; Bank of Canada announcement of September 2, 2026.

Also available in French: version française de ce guide.

Published September 6, 2026 by the Loaa & Manseur team, the number 1 team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025, 6th RE/MAX team in Quebec, 15th in Canada and in the global top 50 according to the official RE/MAX ranking. Tell us about your project.