Housing starts in Quebec in 2027: 63,500 units according to the APCHQ, far from the 100,000 needed

Forecast · 2027 · Residential construction · APCHQ, February 11, 2026

Quebec will build a little more in 2027, but still 36,500 units a year short of what it needs. Here are the APCHQ figures, region by region, and what they do to resale prices.

The APCHQ forecasts 63,500 housing starts in Quebec in 2027, up 2 % after 62,000 in 2026 (+4 %). Rental construction drives the recovery with a record 43,560 units in 2025 and +5 % expected in 2026; single-family starts climb to 8,855 units in 2026 (+8 %) and condos stabilize around 2,455 units before a slight rebound in 2027. Gatineau falls 6 % (vacancy rate up from 1.9 % to 3.8 %), Drummondville rises 8 %. Renovation, after +30 % in 2025, slows to +8 % in 2026 and +4 % in 2027. The APCHQ says Quebec needs at least 100,000 units a year to close the supply deficit: at 63,500, the scarcity that supports resale prices does not ease in 2027. In Canada, CMHC sees starts falling from 259,028 in 2025 to 241,400 in 2026, then 223,000 in 2027.

The APCHQ figures for 2026 and 2027

The forecasts were published on February 11, 2026. The 2025 figures marked "≈" are implied by the APCHQ's percentages, not published as such. The association calls the trend "encouraging but insufficient" and urges the Quebec government to make housing a budget priority.

Region by region

• Gatineau: the only metropolitan area declining in 2026 (-6 %), because the rental vacancy rate rose from 1.9 % in 2024 to 3.8 % in 2025: developers delivered, the market is digesting.
• Drummondville: the strongest growth expected (+8 %), driven by rentals and affordable single-family homes; our Drummondville market report shows the matching resale market.
• Montreal, Quebec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières: general increases in 2026 per the APCHQ, dominated by rentals. On Montreal's South Shore, current projects are mostly rental towers and condos around the REM (Brossard, Longueuil, Candiac); our building sheets detail the delivered projects.

Why 63,500 is not enough, and what it does to prices

The APCHQ puts the need at 100,000 units a year to close the supply deficit and durably improve affordability. At 63,500, Quebec will build about 63 % of what it needs in 2027. The consequences show up in resale:

• Scarcity of existing houses persists: with 8,855 new houses a year for the whole province, the resale single-family home remains the only product available to most families; the QPAREB forecasts +5 % on its median price in 2026 and Desjardins a stabilization in 2027, not a decline.
• Rentals absorb young households: the record 43,560 rental units in 2025 explains the rise in condo listings (+19 % active listings in Quebec in July 2026) and the surplus in downtown Montreal, where a condo takes 89 days to sell. Our Montreal condo market analysis covers that segment.
• New-build costs rise: Desjardins forecast +5 % on the residential construction price index in 2026, after +2 % in 2025. New builds do not pull resale prices down; they pull them up.

And in Canada?

CMHC forecast in January 2026 Canadian housing starts of 247,000 in 2026, 223,000 in 2027 and 216,000 in 2028; its July 2026 update lowers 2026 to 241,400, against 259,028 in 2025, with builders facing "weak demand, high inventories and elevated construction costs," especially in Ontario and British Columbia condos. Quebec is doing the opposite of Canada: building a little more while the country builds less, but from too low a base to catch up.

Frequently asked questions

How many homes will be built in Quebec in 2027?

63,500 housing starts per the APCHQ (forecast of February 11, 2026), up 2 % after 62,000 in 2026. The same association says at least 100,000 a year are needed.

Will construction bring prices down in 2027?

Not at this pace: the supply deficit stays around 36,500 units a year, new single-family homes are limited to 8,855 units and construction costs are rising 5 %. The only segment in surplus is the new condo in downtown Montreal.

Buy new or resale in 2027?

New guarantees code compliance and the GCR warranty, but costs more and comes with a 12-to-24-month wait; resale is negotiated on closed sales and delivered in 60 days. Our first-time buyer guide helps decide.

Sources

• Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast, July 15, 2026, and the January 2026 update.
• CMHC, Housing Market Outlook, January 15, 2026, and the summer update reported on July 22, 2026.
• APCHQ, 2026-2027 forecasts for Quebec's construction and housing sector, February 11, 2026.
• Desjardins Economic Studies: Bank of Canada decision of September 2, 2026 (Randall Bartlett) and economic forecasts of August 20, 2026.
• RBC Economics, Housing affordability, March 31, 2026 (Robert Hogue).
• QPAREB (APCIQ), July and August 2026 statistics and Q2 2026 review (Charles Brant).
• Royal LePage, 2026 forecast (December 2025); nesto market reviews of February 9 and August 19, 2026; Bank of Canada announcement of September 2, 2026.

Also available in French: version française de ce guide.

Published September 6, 2026 by the Loaa & Manseur team, the number 1 team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025, 6th RE/MAX team in Quebec, 15th in Canada and in the global top 50 according to the official RE/MAX ranking. Tell us about your project.