Real estate 2027: why Quebec outperforms Canada, and why there will be no crash

Forecast · 2027 · Quebec versus Canada · CREA, CMHC, Royal LePage, QPAREB, Desjardins

When the Canadian average says +1 %, Quebec does +5. Here are the five documented reasons, the three real risks, and why no serious forecaster talks about a crash for 2027.

Quebec outperforms Canada in 2026 and should keep doing so in 2027: +5.2 % in prices year over year in July 2026 per CREA against +1.1 % forecast for the country, +7 % in the fourth quarter of 2026 per Royal LePage (Quebec City +8 %, Montreal +5 %), "modest" but positive gains per CMHC while most Canadian markets decline. Five reasons: prices that started lower, a deeper supply shortage (63,500 starts for 100,000 needed), almost no new-condo glut outside downtown Montreal, a sales-to-new-listings ratio still at 66 %, and a policy rate held at 2.25 %. No agency forecasts a crash: Desjardins sees a stabilization in 2027, CREA a 3.7 % rebound in sales. The three risks are U.S. tariffs, the drop in population growth and the downtown surplus.

The numbers that separate Quebec from Canada

The five reasons behind Quebec's outperformance

1. Prices that started lower. Quebec's median single-family home is $505,000; Toronto's detached, $1.29 million. Even after +67 % in five years (QPAREB, January 2026), Quebec remains the cheapest large market in the country, which draws Ontario households: our guide moving from Toronto to Montreal quantifies the gap.
2. A deeper supply shortage. CREA itself cites Quebec's "historic supply shortages"; the APCHQ forecasts 63,500 starts in 2027 against 100,000 needed, including only 8,855 new houses. See housing starts 2027.
3. Almost no new-build glut. The unsold new condo pulling Toronto and Vancouver down exists in Quebec only in downtown Montreal (89 days on market, 13 to 25 months of inventory depending on the range). Elsewhere, condos sell in 28 to 48 days.
4. Still a seller's market. Despite +19 % listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio stays at 66 % in Quebec; Charles Brant of the QPAREB speaks of a "gradual rebalancing" in the second quarter of 2026, not a reversal.
5. Stable rates. The policy rate has been 2.25 % since October 2025 and the dominant scenario sees only a 50-basis-point hike in 2027; demand is not being cut off by credit as in 2022-2023.

Why there will be no crash

A housing crash needs three ingredients at once: excess supply, a sharp rate shock and a wave of forced sales. In 2027 none is in place in Quebec: supply is in deficit, rates rise by at most 50 to 100 basis points, and unemployment is not exploding. Forecasts converge on a plateau, not a fall: +1.1 % for CREA in Canada, stabilization for Desjardins in Quebec, a "modest recovery" for CMHC in 2027-2028. Our Quebec 2027 forecast goes through the indicators one by one.

The three risks that could change the scenario

• U.S. tariffs. The new duties of August 22, 2026 weigh on Quebec aluminum, lumber and aerospace; Desjardins forecasts only 0.4 % growth in Quebec in 2026. A regional recession would slow sales, not necessarily prices. Our tariff war and real estate file details the scenarios.
• The drop in population growth. It is the reason CREA gave for revising Quebec sales down: fewer temporary residents, fewer new households, especially in rentals and condos.
• The downtown Montreal surplus. A record of listings in August 2026 in Ville-Marie; if investors sell in bulk, the Montreal condo could slip a few points without contaminating the suburban house. See the Montreal condo market.

Frequently asked questions

Will Quebec's housing market keep rising in 2027?

Agencies forecast a plateau rather than a strong rise: stabilization per Desjardins, modest gains per CMHC, "slightly larger" gains than the Canadian average per CREA in January. Quebec City is the upside exception.

Why does Quebec rise while Canada falls?

Because the Canadian decline is that of new condos in Toronto and Vancouver, a surplus Quebec did not build; because its prices remain the lowest of the large markets; and because its supply deficit (63,500 starts for 100,000 needed) does not close in 2027.

Will there be a housing crash in Quebec in 2027?

No published forecast shows one. The three ingredients of a crash are missing: excess supply, a rate shock, forced sales. The dominant scenario is a price plateau with a 3.7 % rebound in Canadian sales.

Sources

• Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast, July 15, 2026, and the January 2026 update.
• CMHC, Housing Market Outlook, January 15, 2026, and the summer update reported on July 22, 2026.
• APCHQ, 2026-2027 forecasts for Quebec's construction and housing sector, February 11, 2026.
• Desjardins Economic Studies: Bank of Canada decision of September 2, 2026 (Randall Bartlett) and economic forecasts of August 20, 2026.
• RBC Economics, Housing affordability, March 31, 2026 (Robert Hogue).
• QPAREB (APCIQ), July and August 2026 statistics and Q2 2026 review (Charles Brant).
• Royal LePage, 2026 forecast (December 2025); nesto market reviews of February 9 and August 19, 2026; Bank of Canada announcement of September 2, 2026.

Also available in French: version française de ce guide.

Published September 6, 2026 by the Loaa & Manseur team, the number 1 team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025, 6th RE/MAX team in Quebec, 15th in Canada and in the global top 50 according to the official RE/MAX ranking. Tell us about your project.