Market · US tariffs · Updated September 5, 2026
It is no longer a threat, it is in force. Here, with official figures, is what the tariff war does to Quebec's housing market, what Americans say about their own, and a straight answer to the question everyone asks: buy now or wait.
Since August 22, 2026, the United States has applied a 50 % tariff on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods, including goods that comply with CUSMA, and Canada retaliates dollar for dollar from September 8. For the Greater Montreal housing market the effect runs through three channels: employment (Quebec is the only province losing jobs over twelve months), interest rates (no major bank forecasts a policy-rate cut before 2028; the next move is a hike) and construction costs (+2.5 % in Montreal in a single quarter). No institution forecasts a sharp price decline: CREA sees +1.1 % in 2027, CMHC +3.5 % after a slight dip in 2026. The market is not collapsing, it is rebalancing.
Summer was supposed to end with a deal. It ended with an escalation. On August 22, after talks collapsed, Washington put in force a 50 % tariff on about US$20 billion of Canadian goods (cement, furniture, paper, textiles, dairy, building materials, auto parts, wine). The tariff applies even to goods that comply with CUSMA, which erodes the agreement's protection in practice. Prime Minister Carney left the table the same day. Ottawa retaliates from September 8 with counter-tariffs of 15, 25 and 50 % on $27.6 billion of American products.
The legal frame changed too. The US Supreme Court struck down the so-called emergency tariffs on February 20, 2026; the administration replaced them with other instruments. And on July 1, at the CUSMA joint review, the United States declined the 16-year extension: the agreement is not dead, but it moves to annual review until 2036.
| US measure | Rate | Since | What is hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| General tariff outside CUSMA | 10 % | July 24, 2026 | Goods that do not comply with the agreement |
| Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930) | 50 % | August 22, 2026 | Cement, furniture, paper, dairy, building materials, auto parts, even CUSMA-compliant |
| Steel, aluminum, copper | 50 % | 2025, widened April 2026 | On the full value of the product since April |
| Automobiles | 25 % | 2025 | Non-US content of vehicles |
| Softwood lumber | 10 % + countervailing duties | 2025 | Kitchen cabinets at 25 %, then 50 % on January 1, 2027 |
Sources: Québec.ca (updated August 28, 2026), White House fact sheet of July 20, 2026, Finance Canada counter-tariff list of August 26, 2026.
The 50 % tariff covers $7.7 billion of Quebec exports, more than 9 % of what the province sells to the United States (Radio-Canada, August 22, 2026). Dairy, aluminum, steel, lumber, furniture, cement: the targeted sectors are concentrated here. According to the Labour Force Survey of September 4, Quebec is the only province to have lost jobs over twelve months (54,000 fewer), with a drop of 19,000 in August alone and 21,000 in Montreal. Quebec's unemployment rate is still low (5.6 %, against 6.9 % in Ontario), but the trend has turned.
Desjardins forecasts Quebec growth of 0.4 % in 2026 and 1.4 % in 2027 (outlook of August 20). Canada as a whole posted the strongest growth in the G7 in the second quarter (+3.3 % annualized), but that data predates the 50 % tariff.
Why it matters for a house: real estate follows employment with a six-to-twelve-month lag. The summer's job losses will show up in winter mortgage pre-approvals. This is not a crash, it is demand thinning out while supply grows.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25 % on September 2, 2026, for the seventh consecutive decision. The statement explicitly cites "new US tariffs and Canadian countermeasures" as a source of uncertainty, and notes that financial conditions have tightened since July and long-term bond yields have risen, including in Canada. In other words, a policy rate on pause does not stop a five-year fixed from rising, because fixed rates follow bonds. Our policy rate page is updated at every announcement; the next one is October 28, 2026.
| Bank | Policy rate, end of 2026 | End of 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| TD, BMO | 2.25 % | 2.25 % |
| CIBC, Desjardins, National Bank | 2.25 % | 2.75 % |
| Scotiabank | 2.75 % | 3.00 % |
| RBC | 2.25 % | 3.25 % |
None of the seven big banks forecasts a cut. Most place the first hike in the first half of 2027; Scotiabank and National Bank see it as early as fall 2026. On September 4 the best posted rates were 4.09 % for a five-year fixed and about 3.35 % for a five-year variable.
The US market has been living for two years what is starting here. In July 2026, Redfin counted 967,000 active buyers against 1.46 million sellers, a record 51 % surplus of sellers. Builders sit at 35 on the NAHB confidence index, below 40 for a sixteenth straight month; 35 % of them are cutting prices and 63 % offer incentives. Prices, though, are not falling: Fannie Mae forecasts +2.3 % in 2026 and +1.0 % in 2027, Goldman Sachs +0.8 % then +2.3 %, Zillow a flat year.
The point that touches us directly: the Federal Reserve is no longer in cutting mode. Its new chair, Kevin Warsh, spoke in late August of 3.7 % twelve-month inflation fed by oil, and markets priced a 60 to 66 % probability of a rate hike on September 16. The US 30-year mortgage rate was 6.71 % on September 3 (Freddie Mac). When US long rates rise, ours follow, whatever the Bank of Canada does.
Their response that works is worth noting: seller concessions (present in 46 % of US sales), incentives and tighter marketing, rather than deep price cuts.
| Source (date) | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| CREA (July 15, 2026) | Sales -1.4 %, average price +1.1 % | Sales +3.7 %, price +1.1 % |
| CMHC (July 22, 2026) | Sales -2.8 %, price -0.6 %, housing starts -6.8 % | Price +3.5 %, sales +3.4 % |
| TD, Quebec (January 19, 2026) | Price +8.2 % | Price +4.4 %, sales +6.9 % |
| Royal LePage (July 14, 2026) | Greater Montreal +5 % by December | Not published |
| APCIQ (July 14, 2026) | Quebec sales -6 %, single-family +5 % | Expected in December |
Two honest caveats. CMHC sees Canadian prices slipping slightly in 2026 while CREA sees them rising; the truth will probably sit between the two. And TD, very upbeat in January, spoke in July of Quebec prices "firm but decelerating" and of sales flat on average over 2026-2027. Nobody forecasts a collapse; nobody forecasts a boom. Our Quebec real estate forecast 2027 compiles every published source.
The APCIQ's August statistics, released September 4, show a market rebalancing without giving up on price: 2,853 sales in the CMA (-13 %, a sixth month of decline), 20,128 active listings (+18 %), and on the South Shore the largest supply increase of any suburban ring (+28 %). Prices hold: $650,000 for a CMA single-family home (+2.8 %), $437,250 for a condo (+3.6 %). The APCIQ notes that the rebalancing is now reaching the suburban rings.
| Sector (August 2026) | Median single-family | Year over year | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Island of Montreal | $820,000 | +2 % | 57 days |
| South Shore | $655,000 | +4 % | 37 days, the shortest |
| Laval | $642,750 | +7 % | 40 days |
| North Shore | $600,000 | +4 % | 37 days |
| Vaudreuil-Soulanges | $645,500 | +1 % | 50 days |
Applied to the South Shore median, the institutional forecasts give a narrow range for 2027: between $651,000 (CMHC 2026 scenario) and $684,000 (TD Quebec scenario), a 5 % spread. These are provincial or national forecasts, not local ones; the sector detail is on home prices by city on the South Shore and Montreal market statistics.
Our team's reading, built from the forecasts above. The probabilities are a judgment, not a data point.
Dates to watch: the Federal Reserve on September 16, the APCIQ's September statistics around October 6, September employment on October 9, and the Bank of Canada on October 28 with new projections. If South Shore days on market exceed 45 for two consecutive months, the market will have crossed to the buyer's side.
The right question is not "will prices fall?", since no institution forecasts a meaningful drop. It is "does my payment hold if my rate is 5 % at renewal?". On $500,000 amortized over 25 years, the monthly payment is about $2,655 at 4.09 %, $2,460 at 3.35 % (variable) and $2,965 at 5.20 %, the five-year rate CMHC uses in its projections. Each quarter point is worth about $70 a month. Our mortgage calculator runs it with your numbers.
Statistics Canada measures a 2.5 % rise in residential construction costs in Montreal in the second quarter, in a single quarter, and explicitly cites retaliatory duties. Altus expects 4 % and more a year, with metals the dominant pressure. Quebec housing starts are holding (+14 % in July year over year, 31,376 year to date), but new single-family homes are down 12 % in the CMA and National Bank expects construction "particularly weak in 2027 and beyond". For a new-home buyer, that means developers with unsold inventory to move this winter, and a GST rebate that makes the gap with resale smaller than it looks.
Not according to the institutions. CREA forecasts +1.1 % in 2026 and 2027, CMHC -0.6 % then +3.5 %, TD +4.4 % for Quebec in 2027. The tariff effect shows first in sales (fewer), days on market (longer) and supply (more), not in prices, which hold thanks to Quebec's relative affordability compared with Ontario and British Columbia, where prices are down 4 to 5 %.
None of the seven big Canadian banks forecasts a policy-rate cut. Most see a hike in the first half of 2027, toward 2.75 %; RBC goes as far as 3.25 % by the end of 2027. Fixed rates follow bonds and have already started rising despite the Bank of Canada's pause.
The policy rate is not expected to move on October 28 according to most banks, but the economic projections released that day can move fixed rates. A pre-approval before the announcement locks your rate for 90 to 120 days: the simplest way to cross the date without risk.
Not yet. At 37 days on market it is the fastest market in Greater Montreal, but supply has jumped 28 % in a year. Beyond 45 days for two consecutive months, we will call it a buyer's market. We update this page at every APCIQ release.
Also available in French: version française de ce guide.
Published September 5, 2026 by the Loaa & Manseur team, the number 1 team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025, 6th RE/MAX team in Quebec, 15th in Canada and in the global top 50 according to the official RE/MAX ranking. Tell us about your project.
Équipe no 1 de RE/MAX Platine en 2024 et en 2025, 6e au Québec, 15e au Canada et dans le top 50 mondial au classement officiel RE/MAX. Réponse en moins de 24 heures, sept jours sur sept.