Analysis · 2027 forecast
Only two institutions have published numbers for Quebec in 2027. Both point to a price increase of roughly 4 percent. Meanwhile, the number of properties for sale across the province is up 19 percent in one year.
For 2027, CMHC expects Canadian home prices to return to modest growth after declining in 2026, and notes that Quebec should post modest increases because its market is more balanced (mid-year update, July 22, 2026). TD Economics puts Quebec at plus 4.4 percent on prices and plus 1.0 percent on sales in 2027, after plus 6.9 and plus 4.1 percent in 2026 (January 19, 2026). Neither publishes a city level forecast. So selling in 2026 or waiting for 2027 depends far less on the forecast than on your own situation: if you sell and buy back in the same market, a 4 percent rise applies to both properties and your net gain is zero. If you downsize, waiting can pay. If you move up, waiting costs you money. The Loaa & Manseur team, the number one team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025, runs that calculation on your property for free, using closed comparables from your sector. Answer within 24 hours at 438 807 3653.
What the 2027 forecasts actually say
Most pages promising a 2027 forecast contain none. Here are the only institutional publications that put a number on 2027, with their dates, because an undated forecast is worthless.
| Source | Date | What it forecasts for 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| CMHC, mid-year update of the Housing Market Outlook | July 22, 2026 | Prices fall in 2026, then return to modest growth in 2027 and 2028. Quebec should post modest increases thanks to a more balanced market |
| CMHC, national baseline scenario | January 15, 2026 | Canada: about 497,000 sales, average price of 705,000 dollars, 223,000 housing starts |
| TD Economics, provincial housing outlook | January 19, 2026 | Quebec: prices plus 4.4 percent, sales plus 1.0 percent (against plus 6.9 and plus 4.1 forecast for 2026) |
| Bank of Canada, policy rate decision | September 2, 2026 | Policy rate held at 2.25 percent for a seventh consecutive time; next announcement October 28, 2026, with the Monetary Policy Report |
Note the limitation. CMHC speaks about Canada, TD about the province as a whole. Neither publishes a forecast for Brossard, Longueuil or Saint-Bruno. When a website tells you what your house will be worth in 2027, it is making it up.
The September 2, 2026 decision, and what it changes
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25 percent on September 2, 2026, a seventh consecutive hold since the October 2025 cut, with the Bank Rate at 2.5 percent and the deposit rate at 2.20 percent. Governing Council says it is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed, but notes that upside risks to inflation have increased: headline inflation is hovering around 3 percent because of gasoline, while inflation excluding gasoline was 2.2 percent and core measures stayed close to 2 percent in July.
Two findings matter directly to buyers and sellers. The Bank notes some rebound in housing activity in the second quarter, in an economy whose GDP grew 3.3 percent. And, the point the headlines miss, financial conditions have tightened since July and long-term bond yields have moved up, including in Canada. Those yields, not the policy rate, drive fixed mortgage rates: a policy rate on hold does not prevent fixed rates from rising. The next announcement, with the Monetary Policy Report, is October 28, 2026. Bank of Canada press release.
The number that matters more than the forecast
While forecasters talk in annual percentages, the market has already moved. Here are the APCIQ figures for July 2026, across Quebec:
| Indicator, July 2026 | Value | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| Active listings | 41,166 | plus 19 percent |
| New listings | 11,303 | plus 9 percent |
| Residential sales | 7,407 | minus 6 percent |
| Median price, single-family | 505,000 dollars | plus 3 percent |
| Median price, condominium | 396,504 dollars | minus 1 percent |
| Days on market, single-family | 41 days | plus 1 day |
Inventory up 19 percent with sales down 6 percent is the textbook definition of a market rebalancing toward buyers. If you postpone your sale to 2027, you will not simply be selling into slightly higher prices. You will be selling next to many more signs on many more lawns. Price forecasts never tell you that part.
Sell now or wait: the actual mechanics
The question has three answers, not one, depending on what you do after the sale. The scenarios below apply TD's Quebec forecast of plus 4.4 percent in 2027 to a home at the median price of the Brossard and Saint-Lambert sector, 803,000 dollars according to the APCIQ barometer for the second quarter of 2026. These are scenarios, not guarantees.
| Your situation | Your home gains | The home you buy gains | Net effect of waiting |
|---|---|---|---|
| You buy back at a similar price (803,000) | about 35,000 dollars | about 35,000 dollars | zero, minus one more year of carrying costs |
| You downsize (buy back at 450,000) | about 35,000 dollars | about 19,800 dollars | about 15,000 dollars in your favour |
| You move up (buy back at 1,000,000) | about 35,000 dollars | about 44,000 dollars | about 9,000 dollars against you |
The lesson fits in one sentence: a price increase only makes you richer if you leave the market, or move down in price. As long as you stay in it, the tide lifts both boats. And during that year of waiting you keep paying municipal and school taxes, insurance, maintenance and interest. Add that the welcome tax on your next property also rises with the price you pay.
Four cases where waiting genuinely makes sense
- Renovations will change your category. A finished kitchen, a new roof or a French drain moves you into a different set of comparables. That gain is concrete and depends on no forecast.
- A lease ends in 2027. Selling while tenanted shrinks your buyer pool and your price. Our guide on selling a house with a tenant in Quebec covers the notice periods and the rights involved.
- An estate or a tax question is unresolved. The notary's calendar comes before the market's.
- A prepayment penalty drops to zero in 2027. Compare the exact penalty, which your lender must give you in writing, against the expected gain.
Four cases where waiting costs you
- You are moving up. The wider the price gap, the more the wait costs, as the table above shows.
- Your sector is already heavy with inventory. On the South Shore, single-family homes sell in 41 days in Brossard against 20 days in Boucherville and Saint-Bruno, at a nearly identical median price. A slow sector that receives even more listings does not become faster.
- You are carrying two properties. Every month of waiting is paid twice.
- You are selling a condominium. Quebec condo median prices were down 1 percent year over year in July 2026, with 52 days on market, while single-family homes rose 3 percent.
South Shore: five sectors, five different answers
This is why a provincial forecast cannot decide for you. Five neighbouring sectors, same quarter, same property type, from the APCIQ barometer for the second quarter of 2026, produced from the Centris system:
| APCIQ sector | Median price | Days on market | 12 months | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candiac / La Prairie | 820,000 dollars | 39 days | plus 7 percent | plus 33 percent |
| Brossard / Saint-Lambert | 803,000 dollars | 41 days | plus 7 percent | plus 26 percent |
| Boucherville / Saint-Bruno | 800,000 dollars | 20 days | plus 5 percent | plus 38 percent |
| Vieux-Longueuil | 623,000 dollars | 21 days | plus 7 percent | plus 36 percent |
| South-west (Saint-Constant, Delson) | 620,000 dollars | 38 days | plus 6 percent | plus 42 percent |
Two sectors show almost identical median prices, 803,000 and 800,000 dollars, with days on market that differ by a factor of two. In the first, a seller who waits another year arrives in a market where buyers already have choice. In the second, scarcity is still doing the work.
Rates in 2027: what is known
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25 percent on September 2, 2026, a seventh consecutive hold, and the next Bank of Canada announcement lands on October 28, 2026. No institution guarantees a cut in 2027.
One confusion comes up constantly among sellers. A rate cut does not only lower your future payment. It brings buyers back to the market, which supports prices, and it brings your neighbours to the same conclusion at the same moment. Waiting for a rate cut means waiting for the month when your buyers have more capacity and your competition has more listings.
What these forecasts cannot predict
One example measures the fragility of the exercise. In January 2026, CMHC published a baseline scenario for the years ahead. In July 2026, it revised the current year downward, on both sales and prices. Kevin Hughes, CMHC deputy chief economist, summed it up by saying that price declines had not yet brought buyers back to the market, since economic uncertainty, income growth and borrowing conditions had all pushed them away.
A forecast is a photograph taken on a given date with the information available on that date. It does not know next year's immigration policy, the state of the labour market, or the trade decisions weighing on the Canadian economy. Above all it does not know your street, your lot size, your year of construction or the state of your roof.
Frequently asked questions
Will Quebec home prices rise or fall in 2027?
The two available institutional forecasts point to moderate growth. TD Economics puts Quebec price growth at 4.4 percent in 2027, with sales up only 1.0 percent, in a report dated January 19, 2026. CMHC, in its July 22, 2026 update, expects Canadian prices to return to modest growth in 2027 and 2028, and notes that Quebec should see modest increases because its market is more balanced than Ontario or British Columbia.
Should I sell in 2026 or wait until 2027?
It depends on what you do next. If you buy back a property of comparable value, a 4 percent increase applies to both and your net gain is zero, minus a year of taxes, insurance, maintenance and interest. If you downsize or leave ownership, waiting can put a few thousand dollars in your pocket. If you move up, waiting costs you money, because the price gap widens at the same rate.
What exactly does CMHC forecast for 2027?
In its baseline scenario published January 15, 2026, CMHC projected roughly 497,000 sales in Canada for 2027, an average price of 705,000 dollars and 223,000 housing starts. Its mid-year update on July 22, 2026 revised 2026 downward and kept the view that modest growth resumes in 2027 and 2028, with sales recovering gradually but staying below the levels of the past decade.
What will my house be worth in 2027?
Nobody can tell you, and no institution publishes a forecast per property or even per city. What can be calculated today is the current value, based on closed comparable sales in your sector, and then the effect of a growth scenario on your specific project. We produce that for free, in writing.
Will mortgage rates come down in 2027?
No cut is guaranteed. The policy rate was held at 2.25 percent on September 2, 2026, a seventh consecutive hold, and the next announcement is October 28, 2026. Fixed mortgage rates track bond yields rather than the policy rate directly, which is why they sometimes move before it, or without it.
Is the market favouring buyers or sellers right now?
It is rebalancing. In July 2026 Quebec counted 41,166 active listings, up 19 percent year over year, against 7,407 sales, down 6 percent. The median single-family price still rose 3 percent to 505,000 dollars, but with 41 days on market. The real answer depends on your sector: 20 days in Boucherville and Saint-Bruno against 41 in Brossard in the second quarter of 2026.
Related reading: how long it takes to sell a house in the Montreal area and the best real estate team on the South Shore.
Saving for 2027? The FHSA, known as the CELIAPP in French, gives you 8,000 dollars of deductible room a year. See the CELIAPP in English.
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Updated on September 2, 2026, the day of the Bank of Canada decision.
Published by the Loaa & Manseur team, the number one team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025, 6th RE/MAX team in Quebec, 15th in Canada and in the worldwide top 50 according to the official RE/MAX ranking, offices at 55 avenue de l'Équinoxe in Brossard. This page is updated with every quarterly APCIQ barometer and every CMHC forecast revision. Tell us about your project.