Should you buy a home in 2026 or wait until 2027?

Buying · The question of fall 2026 · Updated September 5, 2026

It is the question we hear at every appointment since the tariff war hardened. Here is the answer in numbers: what waiting twelve months costs or earns under three scenarios, a five-question test to decide, and the verdict for your situation.

For a buyer with a real need and a payment that holds at 5 % interest, buying in fall 2026 beats waiting for 2027. Three reasons in numbers: supply is the most abundant since 2020 (listings up 18 % in the Montreal CMA and 28 % on the South Shore in August 2026), none of the seven big banks forecasts a policy-rate cut before 2028 (the next move is a hike), and no institution forecasts a sharp price drop (CREA +1.1 % in 2027, CMHC +3.5 %, TD +4.4 % for Quebec). Waiting twelve months costs between $22,000 and $28,000 in two scenarios out of three, and only pays off if a recession pulls prices down, a scenario in which the buyer who waited still has to qualify.

The short answer

If you have a real need (a birth, a separation, a relocation, a lease ending, rent going up) and your payment holds at 5 % interest, buy in fall 2026. If your job is in a sector directly exposed to US tariffs (aluminum, lumber, furniture, exporting manufacturers) or your down payment is not ready, wait, but wait for the right reason: your situation, not the market.

What follows explains why, with the official figures of September 2026. The full context is on our tariff war and Quebec real estate page.

Why 2026 is not a year to run from

• Supply is the most abundant since 2020. In August 2026 the Montreal CMA had 20,128 active listings (+18 % year over year) and the South Shore posted the largest increase of any suburban ring (+28 %). Sales fell 13 %. Result: sellers accepting inspection and financing conditions, something that had not existed for years.
• Rates will not fall in 2026. The Bank of Canada held 2.25 % on September 2 for the seventh time, and none of the seven big banks forecasts a cut: TD and BMO see 2.25 % at the end of 2027, CIBC, Desjardins and National Bank 2.75 %, Scotiabank 3.00 %, RBC 3.25 %. Fixed rates, which follow bonds, have already started to rise. The best five-year fixed was 4.09 % on September 4.
• Prices are not falling, they are slowing. The CMA single-family median was $650,000 in August (+2.8 %), the South Shore's $655,000 (+4 %). For 2027, CREA forecasts +1.1 %, CMHC +3.5 % after a slight dip in 2026, TD +4.4 % for Quebec. Nobody forecasts a sharp drop, except downtown condos.

The simulator: what waiting twelve months costs or earns

Take the typical South Shore purchase: a single-family home at $655,000 (August 2026 median), 20 % down, a $524,000 mortgage over 25 years. At 4.09 % the payment is about $2,780 a month. During a year of waiting, rent of $1,900 a month (average asking rent in Montreal, CMHC) costs $22,800, against about $21,400 of interest and $7,000 of taxes and upkeep for the owner: on cash, waiting is roughly neutral. What makes the difference is the purchase price and the rate on the day you buy.

Add, for the buyer who acts now, the principal repaid in the first year (about $12,000 on this mortgage) and any appreciation. These are orders of magnitude, computed with semi-annual compounding, excluding mortgage insurance and the welcome tax; the price scenarios apply national or provincial percentages to a regional median. Our mortgage calculator reruns it with your numbers.

An honest reading of the table: waiting only pays in the recession scenario, and it pays little, because the price drop is largely eaten by higher rates. In the other two scenarios, waiting costs between $22,000 and $28,000. And the recession scenario is precisely the one in which part of the buyers who waited no longer qualify, because employment moved.

The five-question test

1. Does your payment hold at 5 %? Not at 4.09 %, at 5 %. On $524,000 that is about $3,050 a month. If yes, today's market works for you. If no, this is not the time to wait, it is the time to aim lower.
2. Is your job exposed to tariffs? Aluminum, lumber, furniture, cement, auto parts, manufacturers exporting to the US: Quebec lost 54,000 jobs over twelve months, mostly in those sectors. If your paycheque depends on them directly, wait for a confirmation, not for a market.
3. Do you have a five-year horizon? Entry and exit costs (welcome tax, notary, brokerage at resale) represent 4 to 6 % of the value. Under five years of ownership no year is a good year to buy; above it, 2027's swings hardly weigh.
4. Is your down payment ready? FHSA, RRSP (Home Buyers' Plan up to $60,000 per person), savings. If it reaches 20 % now, you avoid mortgage insurance, a concrete argument not to wait. If it sits at 10 % and is growing fast, six months of waiting may be worth the premium. See how to withdraw from an FHSA.
5. Are you after a single-family home or a condo? Single-family under $700,000 in the suburbs remains the most solid segment (37 days on the South Shore). The downtown condo is the only segment where waiting costs nothing: record listings, 62 days on market, stagnant prices. See the Montreal condo market.

Four "yes" or more: buy in 2026. Two or fewer: fix what blocks you first, the market will wait.

The verdict for your situation

What 2027 could change, and what it will not

The dates that matter: the Federal Reserve on September 16 (60 to 66 % probability of a hike), the APCIQ's September statistics around October 6, the Bank of Canada on October 28 with new projections, and the annual CUSMA review in summer 2027. A trade deal would lift prices before rates; a recession would pull down island and condo prices, not suburban single-family homes. In both cases, what will not change: Quebec builds 62,000 homes a year against a need of 100,000, and the South Shore single-family home at $655,000 sits far below Ontario and British Columbia. The floor is solid. Scenario detail is in our Quebec real estate forecast 2027; the rent-versus-buy side is on rent or buy in Quebec.

If you buy in 2026: how to do it well

• Pre-approval before October 28, to lock a rate before the Bank of Canada's next decision. See mortgage pre-approval.
• Full conditions: inspection and financing, and in a 37-to-62-day market, they pass.
• Negotiate concessions, not only price: possession date, inclusions, repairs before closing. That is what 46 % of US transactions have done for two years, in a market that looks like the one arriving here.
• Look at new construction: developers have unsold inventory and the GST rebate narrows the gap with resale. See first-time buyer programs in Quebec.

Frequently asked questions

Will prices fall in Quebec in 2027?

Not according to the institutions: CREA +1.1 %, CMHC +3.5 %, TD +4.4 % for Quebec. A 3 to 6 % drop is only contemplated in a recession scenario, and mostly on the island of Montreal and in condos. Suburban single-family homes are the most protected segment.

Will mortgage rates be lower in 2027?

Not according to the seven big banks: none forecasts a policy-rate cut, most forecast a hike in the first half of 2027. Fixed rates have already started rising with bond yields.

Is fall a good time to buy?

In 2026, yes: it is the season when the supply accumulated over spring and summer is most abundant, before the winter lull. On the South Shore, 28 % more listings than a year ago.

What if I only have a 5 % down payment?

Buying is still possible with mortgage insurance, and the insurable cap has been $1.5 million since December 2024. The real test is the payment at 5 %, premium included. If it passes, waiting to save more often costs more than the premium itself.

Also available in French: version française de ce guide.

Published September 5, 2026 by the Loaa & Manseur team, the number 1 team at RE/MAX Platine in 2024 and 2025, 6th RE/MAX team in Quebec, 15th in Canada and in the global top 50 according to the official RE/MAX ranking. Tell us about your project.